This is why it’s important to understand the curve, and to understand what it’s telling you.

Rates tell you everything, most specifically risk.

But, you have to view the rates in relative terms. Relative to whatever the base rate option is and the make assumptions based on that.

For instance the recent absolute collapse and massacre in the 2yr yld is telling you that the market perceives they’ll kick the can, IMO. But, it will likely take a while (1-2yr) to work through. So, investors bid up the longest part of that duration as possible and did so hard.

At the same time, they weren’t nearly as willing to go much further out on the curve- 10s, 20s, 30s. And weren’t as interested in the super short stuff. The 6mo was still at 4.88 today. So, they didn’t come in too short either, because the expectation is this will take longer to work through.

Just as every other crisis, it takes months to years to work through all the collapses and mergers. They play out slowly, not all at once.