10% is a pipe dream, sure you will see anecdata here or there but you cannot predictably deploy large amounts of capital into LN and expect meaningful returns, specially given the return on risk for putting your bitcoin in a hot wallet that is accessible over the internet
Discussion
What would be your estimation %?
I think you can only get up significantly if you are selling liquidity. But this will be more a one term thing and we have quote some players who are doing this already.
yeah you can get decent returns when you sell liquidity to loop or on marketplaces etc, but thats not really a repeatable process unless you have endless bitcoin
amboss is throwing around some numbers between 1-4% but thats all based on anecdata and thats the point, it becomes better with large infrastructure - nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpvemhxue69uhkv6tvw3jhytnwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0dec82c33denh2mtvw9kh2uek0p4hymtkwejk2drevvmhxamg895rgattxam8quf5v3j8gdmpxf48gantvvery7fsv9ehyum9xdc8v0mzwfhkzerrv9ehg0t5wf6k2qpqngumlqmus6xkrmvvee4yc7swh9h4uk7vpq4ddt7a2jtvkc22y0as8a7mmt is sharing his numbers somewhat frequently so thats a good start to dig into this
here's an interesting thread nevent1qqsp8ca2q3axpanssgyh28nl6xvnfw4j8h2fctg5un8wfd4h8xpxvqs4q0nu8
The more info the better. In particular real world use cases
People actually trying
Will share what I learn as well
Thanks for the reply
Fwiw my node earns yields well above 10% consistently for over a year now. It took a few years of building up the node, learning, trial and error, to get to that point, but it is certainly possible. Even for a ‘small’ plebnode with few BTC capacity
hat of to you sir! that is a very respectable achievement
Nice data point! Thanks for sharing
And say it was consistently 10%, what are the reasons that yield might compress?
Competition. Entropy. Malfunction. Etc?
Biggest driver of earnings is routing volume. It’s the one factor out of the hands of the noderunner. But volumes overall on the network have been very steadily increasing for a while now. In the past there would be shorter spurts of heavier volumes; what we are seeing now is very consistent and sustained.
Competition— I don’t think is much of an issue at this point. There are very few ‘professional’ lightning modes outside of the large commercial operators. There’s currently more demand for liquidity than is being met imo.
It’s a really interesting investment opportunity I think
Clear need
Clear demand
Earn sats (no Bitcoin hurdle rate)
Self-custody possible
Lots to like
