Nostr Web Client

I have a sinking feeling that there is going to be a big problem with these new ETFs:

-To create additional shares of an bitcoin ETF, an authorized participant (AP) will purchase bitcoin and then exchange that bitcoin with the ETF issuer in exchange for new shares and then sell those shares on the stock market

-To delete (redeem) shares the issuer will buy shares on the market and deliver them to the ETF issue who gives them bitcoin in exchange.

Then the AP sells the bitcoin and gets cash

The APs make money by arbitraging the difference between the price of the shares and the bitcoin (or vice versa)

If they are attempting to create shares (buying bitcoin) but there is not bitcoin on the market then no shares can be created and the share price will dislocate wildly (trade above the number of bitcoin held in the ETF)

If they are deleting shares and the price has dislocated then they will be buying back bitcoin from the issue using shares that are above NAV. (meaning they are losing money buying less bitcoin back with expensive priced shares)

This works fine for stocks where there is always enough shares on the market at the clearing house.

This might not work so well when there are UTXOs that are not interested in being brought into exchanges participating with the ETF and there is a fixed and inelastic supply.

AJ Nobody ⚡🏴 2y ago

Even if the scale is different, doesn't the Canadian ETF prove there's not huge systemic problems so far?

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Discussion

Byzantine 2y ago

those are "in kind creation" where you can deliver existing bitcoin and acquire bitcoin anytime. the US ones are cash settled so they can only operate during business hours and "buy and sell" the bitcoin with cash and only source the asset when the market is open

Feels Guy 2y ago

The flaw in this concern is not understanding how bona-fide market making works. They can create etf shares or boof them indefinitely, legally. Look up mms like citygroup, over 100bn in "securities sold not purchased" and ballooning. This is every mm.

Shitcoins are less fraudulent than what mms can legally do to expand/contract Stocks/share supply without direct reporting.

There is no risk of what is being discussed here.

Don't give em ure fiat.