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There are ~8B people in the world today. These people need better money. Lightning is the solution, right?

On a good day, Bitcoin chain can process 10 transactions every second. Every one of those 8Billion people is going to need at least one lightning channel. That means 8 Billion channel creation transactions need to happen to onboard the global population. At 10 TPS, it will take Bitcoin chain over 25 years to process 8 Billion transactions. Thats just the people today. That doesn't account for the new users that will be born in the next 25 years 🙈. That's if Bitcoin doesn't process any other transactions other than lightning channel openings... much less channel closing or other normal BTC activity.

Tl;dr: it would take 25+ years to get everyone a lightning wallet, if Bitcoin paused and only processed new lightning wallets for the next 25 years.

Doesn't this mean Lightning won't work as global money? What am I missing? Do we just give up and let people use custodial Bitcoin banks instead of owning their wallet keys? I have so many questions.

#plebchain #grownostr

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Discussion

ZapLine 2y ago

Thanks for bringing this up, it’s very interesting!

But can we really say that if every person can’t have their own Lightning channel, that mean Bitcoin can’t be global money?

When I talk to friends I get the impression that the majority of the people would be afraid of having the responsibility to self-custody.

And, after seeing your post, I get the impression that solutions like the one proposed by Fedimint npub1uq70uqgas9pyhds2zt57kr9se8rg3s68ztphjnq82ts8rzeknmeql7u0c and Cashu npub12rv5lskctqxxs2c8rf2zlzc7xx3qpvzs3w4etgemauy9thegr43sf485vg will be inevitably needed

geodesic 2y ago

Great point. I really need to dig into Cashu and Fediment

geodesic 2y ago

Well I can answer that one.

I assume you know Bitcoin doesn't scale, but just to set the baseline for the discussion: Bitcoin can at most handle 10 TPS continuously. Global commerce settles ~50,000 TPS all day every day. If Bitcoin is going to be the digital money, we need an L2 to enable that sort of scale.

So why not lightning? Tl;dr: Bitcoin can't even handle the TPS necessary to on-board global population into Lightning. At best you get 'lightning banks' like we already see with WalletOfSatoshi handling 95%+ of all Zaps... but I give more detail here:

nostr:nevent1qqst88c4nj3yqax9swjgr6gnnum20m26e069apka6pkn5d7n5qnclcgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzp2fctaw2cl6gv45jkfyn4zzqs2mnsengyd72lsemuzp9kkxwm6nwqvzqqqqqqyalfl85

Basically, if an L2 doesn't scale Bitcoin, Bitcoin will never become money and humans will remain slaves to the banks.

VOLKER - Voice Of Logic Knowledge Experience & Responsibility 2y ago

It takes weeks to apply for a banking license, yet still the fiat system kind of works. Obviously not everyone will be a bank, nd obviously not everyone will own Lightning channels. There'll be the paypals and venmos for ordinary people, and Lightning channels for peers with a need for uncensorable transactions.

RamenCoffee 2y ago

1) it may take more than 25 years to reach 8 bn people.