By 7 percentage points.

If it would be just underestimating "by 7%", then they would be incredibly good at it.

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If it was exactly 7%. But it's not, it varies higher and lower than that. 7% is just the average

My point is that you are saying that they are on average wrong by 7%, but I'm guessing you mean 7pp instead. I'm being pedantic on the sentence you wrote.