I think we will see a range of things and there will be nuance. Some federated layer 2 systems will make better, more distributed, more secure networks that support openess and each other. Others will likely offer a fractionally backed token and be more of decentralization theatre. And all in-between. Caveat emptor.

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Federations aren't layer 2 anymore than an SQL database is

It's all theatre, that's the point