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As long as borrowing stress remains elevated, many asset prices are likely to remain choppy.

This is why the Fed is ending balance sheet reduction, but simply ending it is not necessarily sufficient. By 2026 they will likely go back to balance sheet expansion to put out this fire. Notably, it likely won't be very fast/large balance sheet expansion, but rather will be just enough to help settle this down, which makes a big difference.

BlueDuckBTC 1mo ago 💬 2

I remember all the reading and studying after 2008 and following everything Ron Paul said. Now, Paul was not necessarily wrong about anything but this fiat experiment/era has proven WAY more resilient than us nay sayers thought.

If you look at it objectively, Powell and the other Chairs have actually done a great job with the fiscal shit sandwich they were dealt.

That being said, math is math and increasing debt seems to be unsustainable. The question is, can they pull off inflating of debt, removing themselves slowly from USD dominance, and re shore manufacturing to balance out import/exports?

The answer is, yes and we are seeing that shift live. However, it is a patient in ICU that is one false move or slip up in dosage away from calamity. I could be wrong again like I was from 2008 to 2025 and it does collapse but at this point, I’m not betting against “them” anymore.

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Discussion

FernandoTheKoala 1mo ago

I’ve been thinking the same the other day. Gotta hand it to them. These bastards keep going one more day every fucking time.

Math is math and it will happen, but patience is being truly tested here

Polybius 1mo ago 💬 1

Personally, I believe the current system will be the status quo for decades to centuries. I do not think Bitcoin will be fully adopted during our lives.

BlueDuckBTC 1mo ago

Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if some type of hybrid fiat, gold backed, or multi currency system prevails for another decade or two. Historically speaking, the wealthy elite do not give up control and power very easily. Many measure have yet to be played with n order to maintain status quo. #bitcoin is the antithesis of centralized control and power.