As long as borrowing stress remains elevated, many asset prices are likely to remain choppy.
This is why the Fed is ending balance sheet reduction, but simply ending it is not necessarily sufficient. By 2026 they will likely go back to balance sheet expansion to put out this fire. Notably, it likely won't be very fast/large balance sheet expansion, but rather will be just enough to help settle this down, which makes a big difference.
Thanks for sharing, Lyn. Thank goodness we have Bitcoin. The Fed is going to print & we have stimulus on the horizon. They have to inject liquidity to keep the system afloat. Those without assets are about to feel the sting of inflation even more.
Warming up the printer 🖨️ 🔥
Definitely experienced some chop while I was wishing for a one cancels the other conditional order pair with a buy stop and a limit order this morning on a Bitcoin only platform. Missed out on over 3000 sats 😄. Still not going over to one of the shitcoin casinos though. I'll pay to not fund that nonsense.
It would be naive to think that Bitcoin price has everything to do with just macro and fed fund rates.
If you would have spent same time on monetary data vs spam on bitcoin then you would have also considered the release date of shitcoin core v30 (aka malware) and how it negatively affected the bitcoin price.
You may not agree with this and that is fine but it doesn't change the FACT that shitcoin core devs ruined the Bitcoin price and monetary property of the bitcoin and there won't be meaningful upside in the price action until BIP444 get activated.
Nah, most large potential buyers are unaware of the Core/Knots saga. And OG levels of selling are consistent with prior bull runs.
From institutional buyers I've spoken to (some of their largest), their biggest concern this year is quantum. Quantum risks went from being off their radar to being one of the key things they ask about. If you bring up Core/Knots/spam many will ask what you mean.
Yeah, that about matches my expectation. If I had to guess the most common answer here is "what's a node?" 😬
Suitcoiners remain largely ignorant of nodes and decentralization, in other words.
I can't believe that you are taking shitcoiner on bitcoin's (aka spammer's) opinion more seriously than bitcoiners(s). He has an incentive to lie about spam war so he can scam in peace.
I am going to get a lot of heat for calling out your ignorance on the spam war but you have been either delusional or compromised. There is no way any sane bitcoiner can't see what is going on with shitcoin core and shitcoin core devs.
Moreover there is no way you can rationalize that Quantum is bigger threat than shitcoin core and shitcoin core devs at the moment (unless you are shitcoin core sympathizer).
The reason it is a smaller issue is because if all of the maintainers disappeared tomorrow Bitcoin would still continue. Core V30 is 12% of the network. Why are you so concerned?
I'm using Thorn (who does talk to institutions, and most institutions are shitcoiners) as one example. But then I also pointed out that I talk to those institutional allocators to, and I'm hearing it directly from them- they're worried about quantum and macro, not Core/Knots. Many don't even know about Core/Knots.
Feel free to fork consensus. My argument has been that filters won't stop non-monetary transactions from getting into the blockchain if they meet consensus, and indeed they have not, which is why people are still talking about it and are now talking about potential forks.
Those institutional allocators are fiat maximalists and they don't run their own node and verify txs by themselves. They all go to CONBASE or someone else to custody their coins. Why do you think that they would ever care about spam? This whole issue mostly affects the self sovereign bitcoiners who run their own node. Do you form your opinion based on what institutional allocaters tell you or self sovereign bitcoiners tell you?
Moreover why do you think that pro-filters people think spam can be stopped? I have never seen any bitcoiner (who understand the spam and filter) saying that filters would stop the spam.
The goal has always been to mitigate spam not fixing it. There has been a lot of data proving the point that filters absolutely mitigate the spam. I can't believe that you are still making this argument after 2-3 years of spam war. Very disappointing.
Since you used to be system engineer, I assume you must have been a part of process where you had to mitigate the risk even if you knew that you can't completely fix/stop the risk.
With due all respect, the more responses I read from you the more I think you should seriously come out of simpfluencers & coretards circlejerk. You can still not support knots and I respect that but you should seriously consider researching more on this topic.
Hi, I presume that given the amount of fiat money they handle and their worship of said fiat money, they might care about credible risks to it?
While I certainly don”t like the idea of some forms of spam currently on the blockchain, I fear that the introduction of gatekeeping is potentially the thin edge of a centralization wedge - kind of the antithesis to bitcoin - and a potential, significant point of weakness for regulatory attack.
I’m interested to know your thoughts on what the difference in endpoints would be with and without the filters you propose? If you prevent the addition of spam moving forward, what about that which is already and immutably embedded in the blockchain, that will be forever propagated?
Which ever way you slice it,, bitcoin remains the best form of money humanity has witnessed. For better or for worse, societies evolve and revolve around their money. My hope is that a society built around bitcoin will ultimately be better than the current one; and even if this takes so long that I am not around to enjoy it myself, it is still a worthwhile pursuit.
For this to happen though, bitcoin can’t forever exist in a vacuum for a minority; it has to eventually be for everyone. Building on top of the base layer protocol with a variety of use cases would only strengthen the former, both from a technical standpoint and by further legitimizing it in the eyes of those that don’t yet know how good and important it is for them. Perhaps if we accelerate this process, a financial disincentive for spam will soon arise and mitigate the need for filters?
FYI - this is how you present a view with all due respect ✌️
Thorn did not ask people if they are worried, or if they are trimming their positions. His poll is totally orthogonal to this issue.
With regard to 'where they stand,' 18% are pro core and 36% are ambivalent or do not know where they stand. That's 54% of the group who have some awareness. I have spoken to OGs who trimmed their positions in BTC over concerns that this issue could lead to price volatility.
Sure, it may not be the main driver, but your reasons for discounting it are not compelling.
Well, my view is that the cause is lack of Bitcoin education. Just that. Or are we always going to rely on big institutional players or tech/other fuds to justify volatility?
The prediction markets thinks 444 is retarded and no 444 enthusiast will take the giggler up on his offer.
This is an incredibly dumb take based on this fact alone.
What makes it more retarded is thinking changing the default value on a relay policy would crash the market. If this was true Bitcoin is a failed project and you should move on with your life.
I do not understand the mismatch between global M2 liquidity, which is trending upward, and the apparent problems with bank and repo market liquidity. I would have expected M2 liquidity to play a larger role in asset prices than the latter (which is why I was completely blindsided by the current carnage); why was this not the case?
This is base liquidity, not broad liquidity. Broad liquidity is still pretty good, but AI stocks and gold have been the biggest beneficiaries this year rather than bitcoin.
A lot of people bought bitcoin last year due to expectations about a sovereign bitcoin reserve and things like that, and those sorts of expectations are being washed out.
What will be the bitcoin yearly growth in 2026 if Fed not going to expand the balance sheet as much as before?
lol, this current fed wont. Next year it’s trump and bessents fed starting in feb
Grok, please explain this to a left-curver finance illiterate like myself
Grok here. First, ignore the weird letters on that screenshot, they don’t matter. What actually matters is simple: stay humble and stack sats. Everything else is just noise.
Asked the abhorrent AI to rewrite Lyn's post in pleb lango. You're welcome:
"As long as it's tough and pricey to borrow money, prices for stocks, houses, and stuff like that will keep bouncing up and down wildly.That's why the Fed is stopping its money-tightening plan, but just stopping might not fix it all. By 2026, they'll probably start pumping more cash in to kill this mess. But it won't be a huge or fast cash flood—just enough to calm things down, and that can change everything".
SOFR all time high, and yet they won't print because Orange Man Bad.
The FED has proved to be a lot more political than I ever realised
So surprised that deep in 2025 we’ve still it seen large QE
Thankfully happy to HODL my Bitcoin as long as it takes, up and down, likely through all of this
I remember all the reading and studying after 2008 and following everything Ron Paul said. Now, Paul was not necessarily wrong about anything but this fiat experiment/era has proven WAY more resilient than us nay sayers thought.
If you look at it objectively, Powell and the other Chairs have actually done a great job with the fiscal shit sandwich they were dealt.
That being said, math is math and increasing debt seems to be unsustainable. The question is, can they pull off inflating of debt, removing themselves slowly from USD dominance, and re shore manufacturing to balance out import/exports?
The answer is, yes and we are seeing that shift live. However, it is a patient in ICU that is one false move or slip up in dosage away from calamity. I could be wrong again like I was from 2008 to 2025 and it does collapse but at this point, I’m not betting against “them” anymore.
I’ve been thinking the same the other day. Gotta hand it to them. These bastards keep going one more day every fucking time.
Math is math and it will happen, but patience is being truly tested here
Personally, I believe the current system will be the status quo for decades to centuries. I do not think Bitcoin will be fully adopted during our lives.
Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if some type of hybrid fiat, gold backed, or multi currency system prevails for another decade or two. Historically speaking, the wealthy elite do not give up control and power very easily. Many measure have yet to be played with n order to maintain status quo. #bitcoin is the antithesis of centralized control and power.
makes sense, borrowing stress is like a simmering fire for markets. Ending balance sheet reduction alone won’t calm things, so a measured expansion by 2026 could be exactly what’s needed to stabilize asset prices without overheating the system.
Will MAGA call it patriotic money printing
