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DireMunchkin
d986b8a48cef4950fc62f7dc2e0d277ca505757b5aa73f0959b20659e71f7cac
Swedish expat, living in Switzerland. Bitcoin class of 2021.

Obsidian Tasks plugin, I also have notes in Obsidian so having tasks + notes in the same app is neat

Replying to Avatar Toxic Bitcoiner

Stay humble and stack sats took a major hit this last year. The 4 year CAGR is a measly 10.4%, below the rate of fiat money debasement. Barely any returns, barely any merchant adoption for MoE. What reason is there now for a potential precoiner to make the switch to a Bitcoin standard? Stay humble and stack: Nvidia, Palantir, or Tron gave better returns over the last 4 years.

Every single person in the developed world has heard of Bitcoin, yet it STILL only makes up ~0.17% of total global wealth. I’m tempted to even go so far as to say that the bear market of 2022 never ended. I don’t see a legion of new enthusiastic faces like I did in 2020, it’s still mostly the same people from that era and before.

We probably still underestimate how much damage ICOs then FTX, Celsius, Terra, and Blockfi caused for adoption. A double whammy for normies. I saw a story on Nostr the other day that a Square merchant wouldn’t turn on Bitcoin payments because they didn’t want anything to do with “crypto scams.” Potential precoiners are now probably more interested in stocks and real estate than Bitcoin. Even if they’re just trying to prudently outrun fiat inflation, Bitcoin failed at that the last 4 years. I know, 4 years is a bit of cherry picking, 5 year CAGR is 39% and 10 year is 73%. So yea, lower your time preference, fine.

Something big needs to change for adoption to start up again. NGU has failed as a driving force for adoption recently, which leaves freedom, libertarianism, computer science, etc…which, frankly, only an extremely small percentage of people care about enough to make the switch, most of them probably already switched. I don’t know what the catalyst(s) will be for adoption to pick up again or even if there will be one soon. Without at least one, the next few years will be a slog through the mud.

Hard disagree on stacking sats: If you cherry pick your time period bear to bear you can always make Bitcoin's CAGR look bad. I remember in the 2022 bear 4 year CAGR was actually negative at one point. Nobody actually has that CAGR if they DCA though.

For example as a personal anecdote my current CAGR since my first buys early 2021 is now 17%, it was more like 30% before this recent correction. Nothing else can pull these numbers just as a buy and hold strategy.

In theory you could maybe have bought i.e. Palantir at IPO and outperformed this. But realistically with retail availability and without the benefit of hindsight for stock picking there's no way.

Replying to Avatar BitcoinIsFuture

I enjoyed this read. Copied from Reddit.

r/Bitcoin

Haunting-Error9852

"Perspective of someone who HODL´d Bitcoin 11+ years

Hello fellow Bitcoiners!

It’s past midnight and I’m sitting at my desk. I just felt this urge to share my perspective, so I pretty much threw this together straight from the top of my head.

Please know that I originally wrote the text in very messy German, just quickly jotting down my thoughts. For a better reading experience, I had ChatGPT translate it into English without losing the character of my original writing.

Hope you enjoy reading it and that it will help some of you in these times or cycle we are in! Because this was the intention.

I would describe myself as an above-average compassionate and loving person. I picked up this personality trait in my early childhood, and back then it helped me keep my life together. But that’s not supposed to be the topic here.

Still, this information matters, because I often think about how other people might be feeling and what they’re going through — especially when they find themselves in a situation similar to one I’ve already experienced.

And that brings us to Bitcoin. I bought my first Bitcoin on July 24th, 2014 at 8:14 pm. At that time, I was studying computer science and had a bit of spare money as a student, and I just wanted to own it — and somehow understand it as well.

I paid €452.72 for it. To this day, I have never sold any of it, only bought more. I’d like to share a bit about what those years were like for me so that new Bitcoiners can draw courage from it, not get distracted by all the snakes and leeches out there, and strengthen their feeling that they’re believing in the right thing!

Even though I studied computer science, I still didn’t really know how Bitcoin actually works or why it’s supposed to be good. There simply wasn’t as much information back then as there is today. I told my father about the purchase and he laughed at me. He said, “Well, play money… but don’t buy any more of that crap.”

Then I went on a 10-month world trip because I had finished my studies and wanted to explore the world. When I returned in the summer of 2015, my Bitcoin was down 50%.

Back then I thought: “Okay, I won’t sell. Either it goes to zero or it recovers!”

It took until May 29th, 2016 for Bitcoin to climb back to break-even. In the weeks after, it pumped to €715. Wow! Percentage-wise, better than my stock investments at the time — which wasn’t hard, since I thought I’d get rich with Chinese solar stocks, which went terribly wrong.

But the disappointment came right away — the entire gain was gone again within a few weeks!

“Damn!!!!! I should’ve sold, I could have had almost €300 profit…”

Look at the chart on Coinbase: that was on August 3rd, 2016, when I thought, “You greedy idiot, you should’ve sold!”

But everything turned out completely different. From there, the price climbed quickly to €1,000. I was euphoric — a real fireworks show! I had doubled my money, wow! And suddenly it went straight down again, and I didn’t know whether I should exit or wait… would it turn around?! I really tore my hair out over it and decided to just let it run.

When the price went back up and hit €2,000, my father said: “Congratulations, my son!!! Insane. Sell now — it won’t go any higher!”

Back then, Bitcoin was framed in the news as the money of and for criminals. In the darknet people still used Bitcoin to buy drugs, weapons and other things. The press coverage was extremely negative and you got mocked from all sides. Really from ABSOLUTELY EVERY side.

Compared to today, you can’t even imagine how unbelievably bad the conditions for Bitcoin were back then! Nobody knew it, and the few who did compared it to the tulip bubble.

And how stupid I must be not to just sell and take the money while I still could.

Why did I hold out and not sell?

At some point I thought: okay, what if there really is something to this Bitcoin thing? Then I learned more and understood for the first time that Bitcoin is limited and decentralized, and that no company, group, or individual has direct power over BTC.

I had always been a rebel. My school years were pure horror, my parents forced me to study, it was a lot of pressure. When I moved out, went to university and earned my own money, I learned to appreciate freedom. And the 10-month trip through Southeast Asia amplified that — I had never felt so free and self-determined!

I realized that Bitcoin aligns much more with the values I stand for than fiat money, stocks, gold, etc. I liked the idea that everyone has the same chances and that “what’s mine is truly mine” (assuming cold storage) and that Bitcoin cannot be inflated.

So I decided never to sell. “Either it all goes to zero or it will change my life forever.”

You can’t imagine how hard my will was tested. I mean, look at the chart!!! Bitcoin went up to $20,000 — can you imagine how I felt?! WOW! Only to fall back down to $4,000 in the next bear market.

Of course I questioned everything again. Of course I told myself, “You greedy idiot, you should have sold! $20,000 — that would have been another 10-month world trip!”

But then Bitcoin went up again! And seriously, try to put yourself in my shoes while looking at the chart. What a fucking rollercoaster ride!!!

The worst part for me was the dump from $69,000 down to $16,000. At that point I genuinely thought: okay, it’s over now. The press was EXTREMELY negative, the words “Bitcoin ban” were floating around, banks warned and demonized Bitcoin, and my dad said: “What do you mean you didn’t sell?! Are you crazy?!”

All the jealous people laughing behind their hands, convinced it would finally crash to zero.

And my dream of freedom was gone! I was so devastated that I told myself: screw the $16,000, that won’t change my life anyway. Sure, it would be a nice vacation, maybe a motorcycle, but I want to be free, damn it! I hate my IT job — the constant meetings, 30 days of vacation, 9-to-5 work. I can’t stand it. (I should add that I earned very well — but I hated the job.)

Again, I decided not to sell and to stay in until Bitcoin goes to zero.

When Bitcoin, to my total surprise, climbed back to $30k, I decided (again....) that I will never sell. I found it hard to believe that something so often pronounced dead could ever be killed, considering how resilient it keeps showing itself to be.

So I started using my good salary to buy BTC from time to time.

I bought Bitcoin at $26k, $40k, $50k, $60k, $80k, $90k, $100k, $110k, $120k.

If you’re asking how I feel about the current correction:

I’m insanely chill! The news couldn’t be better. Seriously — states, pension funds, BlackRock ETF, Harvard, central banks… more and more are speaking in favor of BTC. What a BRUTAL difference compared to the old days.

Of course it will remain volatile! It’s the best store of value in human history, and people with huge wealth make a fortune from this volatility.

To all of you normal folks out there: I beg you sincerely — don’t play this game and don’t get confused by the noise. Buy Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin. That’s all you need to do. And please don’t drive yourselves crazy. I know how hard it is, and how easy it sounds when some anonymous internet dude like me says it.

Do it like I did. Compare your own values with the values Bitcoin stands for. And then decide which side you want to be on. It will be worth it!

I believe in a fairer and better world, and Bitcoin is the fair store of value for all of us.

All the best and let´s ride this together!

p.s. I quit my job 4 years ago and i live a free live. I will never work in IT again and i am now on my way to become a Personal Trainer, as Fitness, Nutrition and Health was always something I was interested about and loved doing.

(Not financial advice. Just sharing my personal thoughts/opinions on Bitcoin.) "

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1oz0sp4/perspective_of_someone_who_hodld_bitcoin_11_years/

Thanks for reposting 🤙

Interesting proposal from Majorian here: https://xcancel.com/MajorianBTC/status/1983205211901448330

As an alternative to BIP-444 it would just reduce the max size of OP_RETURN to 83 bytes by consensus. Unlike BIP-444 it's permanent, not temporary, but it does not address any other form of spam / data carrying on Bitcoin. (I.E inscriptions.)

My 5 sats: I'm a bit uncomfortable with some aspects of BIP-444: It being a expiring soft fork is a first, and I don't like novel changes. The reactive activation scares the shit of out me. This change is a lot simpler and less risky.

On the other hand it will not solve the spam problem - Main thing is Inscriptions are still in after this hypothetical fork. So this seems a bit insufficient in that regard.

To quote nostr:npub1gdu7w6l6w65qhrdeaf6eyywepwe7v7ezqtugsrxy7hl7ypjsvxksd76nak - "Ethereum is the mother asshole from which the shitcoins spring." 😆

Some elite tier trolling by nostr:npub1v6qjdzkwgaydgxjvlnq7vsqxlwf4h0p4j7pt8ktprajd28r82tvs54nzyr 😂

I had a chance to try this out now in noStrudel - Does the WoT affect notifications? I still see random spammers like I.E nostr:npub1v7urry828l9wgy8ersruacr89g63wc5lzgc6xxgcwhralts2r4eqmz37jj in my replies