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Stay humble and stack sats took a major hit this last year. The 4 year CAGR is a measly 10.4%, below the rate of fiat money debasement. Barely any returns, barely any merchant adoption for MoE. What reason is there now for a potential precoiner to make the switch to a Bitcoin standard? Stay humble and stack: Nvidia, Palantir, or Tron gave better returns over the last 4 years.

Every single person in the developed world has heard of Bitcoin, yet it STILL only makes up ~0.17% of total global wealth. I’m tempted to even go so far as to say that the bear market of 2022 never ended. I don’t see a legion of new enthusiastic faces like I did in 2020, it’s still mostly the same people from that era and before.

We probably still underestimate how much damage ICOs then FTX, Celsius, Terra, and Blockfi caused for adoption. A double whammy for normies. I saw a story on Nostr the other day that a Square merchant wouldn’t turn on Bitcoin payments because they didn’t want anything to do with “crypto scams.” Potential precoiners are now probably more interested in stocks and real estate than Bitcoin. Even if they’re just trying to prudently outrun fiat inflation, Bitcoin failed at that the last 4 years. I know, 4 years is a bit of cherry picking, 5 year CAGR is 39% and 10 year is 73%. So yea, lower your time preference, fine.

Something big needs to change for adoption to start up again. NGU has failed as a driving force for adoption recently, which leaves freedom, libertarianism, computer science, etc…which, frankly, only an extremely small percentage of people care about enough to make the switch, most of them probably already switched. I don’t know what the catalyst(s) will be for adoption to pick up again or even if there will be one soon. Without at least one, the next few years will be a slog through the mud.

DireMunchkin 1mo ago 💬 2

Hard disagree on stacking sats: If you cherry pick your time period bear to bear you can always make Bitcoin's CAGR look bad. I remember in the 2022 bear 4 year CAGR was actually negative at one point. Nobody actually has that CAGR if they DCA though.

For example as a personal anecdote my current CAGR since my first buys early 2021 is now 17%, it was more like 30% before this recent correction. Nothing else can pull these numbers just as a buy and hold strategy.

In theory you could maybe have bought i.e. Palantir at IPO and outperformed this. But realistically with retail availability and without the benefit of hindsight for stock picking there's no way.

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Discussion

vinney...axkl 1mo ago 💬 1

Palantir at IPO, also "abc" at IPO, "xyz" at IPO, etc. etc. - to repeat that strategy again and again is the "everyone must become an investor and spend their time following business news" bullshit that dooms most normal fiat debasement victims.

Compared to learning one single thing, (bitcoin), turning it on once (DCA) and checking out.

The value of that is worth multiples over the opportunity cost of not buying Palantir. (not to mention the enormous moral dimension)

DireMunchkin 1mo ago

Exactly. Picking the one 100x stock early is akin to winning the lottery. And this is the *minimum standard* for outperforming stacking sats! 🤯

We are so lucky. 🤙

JOE2o 1mo ago 💬 1

I think the argument is that the flow of people has stalled and that's what makes things different looking forward. Like in these countries with low birthrates, without children coming up through the population you start to run out of economic potential.

Toxic Bitcoiner 1mo ago

Yes. Thank you for looking at the totality of the post.