interesting tip
The goal is to keep friends and colleagues from sharing a room; selling two rooms is better than selling one.
I do not understand the mismatch between global M2 liquidity, which is trending upward, and the apparent problems with bank and repo market liquidity. I would have expected M2 liquidity to play a larger role in asset prices than the latter (which is why I was completely blindsided by the current carnage); why was this not the case?
Record demand at the Fed's Standing Repo Facility. Watch for the Fed to be forced into a pivot. Bull case for #Bitcoin.
bitcoin dynamics in 2025
This is Rivers 2025 Business Bitcoin Adoption report (https://river.com/learn/files/river-business-report-2025.pdf):
2025 YTD (Jan–Aug): businesses put $43.5B of bitcoin on balance sheets—$12.5B more than all of 2024; trendline suggests $66.9B for the year. River says businesses are now a primary bull-market driver.
As of Aug 25, 2025, ownership split: Individuals 65.9% (13.83M BTC), ETFs/Funds 7.8% (1.63M), Businesses 6.2% (1.30M), Governments 1.5% (306k), Lost 7.6% (1.58M). Supply capped at 21M.
Known business holdings jumped from 510k BTC (Jan ’24) → 1.30M BTC (Aug ’25). BTC mkt cap $815B → $2.24T; companies with BTC: Global public 39→158; S&P 500 1→4; Fortune 500 2→3.
Bitcoin treasury companies drove the wave: 76% of business purchases since Jan ’24 and 60% of publicly reported business holdings; <100 of these firms (≥10 BTC) vs 3,000+ conventional business clients at River.
In 2025 these treasury firms are buying ~1,400 BTC/day; investors hold >$100B of their stock. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) pioneered the model (Aug ’20) and its stash is valued >$70B; >50 similar firms now exist.
Allocation behavior (River survey, Jul ’25): businesses allocate avg 22% (median 10%) of net income to BTC; 63.6% plan to hold/accumulate indefinitely; nearly 1/3 now hold >50% of treasury in BTC due to appreciation.
Custody stance: 7.6% fully self-custody; 18.1% hybrid; 74.3% use third-party custodians—businesses value self-custody for counterparty-risk mitigation but most keep a mix.
Why BTC (per report): fixed supply (inflation hedge), 24/7 liquidity for emergencies, self-custody (post-SVB), and in the U.S. it’s treated as a commodity, not a security. River estimates “Big Tech” lost purchasing power since 2020 holding cash-like assets; even 1% BTC would have offset.
Barriers falling: 2024 GAAP update made accounting more accurate/friendly; Mar 2025 the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve launched; liquidity deepened via ETFs/futures; River says BTC volatility has declined toward (or below) gold; protocol uptime had no downtime in the past decade.
Adoption pattern: skewed to small, concentrated-ownership, long-term firms; 75% of River’s business clients have <50 employees; adoption spans real estate, finance, software, healthcare, construction, nonprofits, and more.
Biggest remaining blocker: perception/understanding. Cited stats: only 6% of Americans know the 21M cap; 46% of businesses cite “lack of understanding” as a barrier; 60% of Americans admit they “don’t know much” about BTC.
ethereum is a scam. bitcoin is money.
long live bitcoin.
https://blossom.primal.net/6c7e8ebfec72cc82e471db46617292f53b9614ba9b2c32abfbadf8bf21deef0a.mp4
1/ I’m pro-Bitcoin. But let’s be honest: network effects are the strongest force in money and platforms—and they can shift.
2/ In 2004, almost no one could forecast Facebook’s eventual dominance. Likewise, we can’t predict how Bitcoin vs. Ethereum network effects will evolve with high confidence.
3/ Different design bets shape those effects:
• Bitcoin: minimal surface area, monetary credibility, slow/rare changes (“ossification”).
• Ethereum: programmability + faster upgrade cadence (L2s, account models, hard forks).
Both attract users/devs for different reasons.
4/ Quantum risk (today): big, fault-tolerant quantum computers would threaten current signature schemes.
– Bitcoin: secp256k1 (ECDSA) for transactions.
– Ethereum: most accounts use secp256k1; validators use BLS12-381.
None of these are quantum-safe.
5/ Path to mitigation: migrate to post-quantum signatures (e.g., lattice or hash-based). Coordination is the bottleneck, not math. Systems with more centralized/streamlined governance can usually ship such upgrades faster; highly decentralized systems move slower by design. That’s a real trade-off, not a value judgment.
6/ I still favor Bitcoin for monetary neutrality and resilience. But network effects are dynamic, and upgrade agility vs. governance risk is the core tension. Anyone claiming certainty about the end state is overconfident.
For webdevs - make any site multiplayer in just a few clicks:
Myra Kain - Somebody Else (karloproducer remix) by karloproducer on #SoundCloud
Yields rising during a market crash is unusual. Normally, Treasuries are the safe haven. This move could mean inflation fears from tariffs, worries about rising deficits, or a broader loss of confidence in US debt. Bond market might be sounding the alarm.