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Replying to Avatar Benking

Honestly, I think that perspective is way too pessimistic. Quantum computing is advancing, yes, but the kind of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum machines needed to break Bitcoin’s secp256k1 keys are still many years away, likely well beyond 2030. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s upgrade path is slow on purpose because security is paramount; rushing changes could introduce more risk than a theoretical quantum threat.

Arguing that “a Shor’s attack will come first” ignores that Bitcoin’s cryptography has decades of scrutiny, and any real threat would likely be spotted and countered with post-quantum upgrades well before keys are compromised. The focus on JPEGs or blockspace debates is actually a sign of normal network development, not a vulnerability indicator.

Bitcoin has survived scaling wars, censorship attempts, and economic shocks. Claiming it’ll fall to quantum computers before it adapts underestimates the resilience of the network, the community, and the gradual, deliberate upgrade process.

db
dbdee246... 1mo ago 💬 1

no, it is possible that we will have working machines able to get private keys from old type addresses within 2 years

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Garbage nsec 1mo ago

What is often glossed over is that advances in math are just as serious as advances in hardware. Like a classical algorithm that massively reduces the input size for shors. AI is knocking on the door there.

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