Replying to Avatar hodlbod

Ever since I started working on the problem of alternative/decentralized social media I've said that "it's a 10 year project with a 0% chance of success". I'm stunned with how well nostr has gone over the last 3 years, and I think we have already achieved some measure of success (though global adoption still remains pretty unlikely in my book).

If you're feeling discouraged with engagement on nostr, user growth, client UX, business model profitability, developer funding models, or protocol stability, just remember how early we are. Very few new businesses reach profitability; protocols are even less likely than that to reach widespread adoption. Nostr's success is far from certain but it's worth investing in anyway. It's an incredibly ambitious project, and requires that we lower our time preference.

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp978pfzrv6n9xhq5tvenl9e74pklmskh4xw6vxxyp3j8qkke3cezqy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq32amnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7tcpr9mhxue69uhkscnj9e3k7unpvdkx2tnnda3kjctv9uqzq7rj27teyddj34xpngwpplzepcx90d7atd2c426etrw73306kczlmfkhtk

nostr:nprofile1qyg8wumn8ghj7mn09eehgu3wvdez7qgswaehxw309ahx7um5wghx6mmd9uqsuamnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dshsz9thwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjme0qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn00p68ytnyv4mz7qpqqsu8mh3sr48qph0dsv5tmvgy8099m9ud4f7prg8uyely7nlvwczsnnzzk2 nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq37amnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3dwfjkccte9ejx2un9ddex7umn9ekk2tcpz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxummnw3ezucnpdejz7qgnwaehxw309amk7apww468smewdahx2tcqyqlhwrt96wnkf2w9edgr4cfruchvwkv26q6asdhz4qg08pm6w3djg9tx6g8 nostr:nprofile1qydhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnhv4ehgetjde38gcewvdhk6tcpzemhxue69uhhwmm59ehx7um5wgh8qctjw3uj7qghwaehxw309aek2ctjvd5zumn0wvh8gmmyv9uj7qghwaehxw309amxjar0wghxummnw3erztnrdakj7qg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09uqzpkkwvwcqcshxuqtaqrw3jz5n9quxqqhlt9acg844a7gauncuapy3qrg4yx

the nice thing about protocols and decentralization is that we can all have different goals and metrics to measure success. i believe we're on a path towards success, though i did wish it would accelerate from time to time. perhaps i wish more of the widespread tech community saw what we saw, even if the average user did not, yet.

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Yeah, quantifying success is something companies do in order to project growth and inform how they organize. It's inherently difficult for a decentralized developer community to do the same, but maybe someone should do some vision casting. Maybe I should write a blog post.

I would love to read it.

Well there are the standard metrics of DAU's, notes, etc; although I take the point of the inherent difficulty in doing this with as fragmented and open of a network as Nostr.

Daily Zaps are another, perhaps more direct and literal indication of "value" accrued to the network.

Usage numbers are like GDP, they only indirectly correlate with real value ("wealth"). Assessing real "success" in human terms requires us to adopt a measure of human flourishing that is subject to an over-arching qualitative framework of value.

Well "usage" and "zaps" are distinct, the latter being a better reference for value and/or wealth.

I agree that it's economic value, but I would still argue that that is a reasonable framework for assessing the value of a project. At the risk of being "vulgar libertarian" about it, I do think that freely-traded economic value is a rough proxy to how important a thing is to society.