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I’m calling bullshit on “past performance is no guarantee..”

Of course it’s not a “guarantee”. The future is uncertain.

But the general point that you can’t predict the future based on the past is complete nonsense. The past is all there is! Everything you think, every argument, is based on it.

“Past performance is no guarantee” is an argument that applies to literally every argument. And therefore it’s completely useless. #rant #Bitcoin

OCTAVIO ZEDE 1y ago

Your perspective raises an interesting point. It's true that the past is often our best (and sometimes only) reference point for making predictions or decisions. However, the disclaimer “past performance is no guarantee…” isn’t dismissing the relevance of history. Instead, it highlights the inherent uncertainty in markets, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

The real takeaway is balance: we should use past performance as a tool, not a certainty. It informs, but it doesn’t dictate. If we dismiss the past entirely, we lack context. If we rely on it absolutely, we risk ignoring new variables. That’s the nuance. #Bitcoin #Perspective

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jimbocoin 🃏 1y ago

I appreciate your comment. However I’m sticking with my take here. 🤝

Instead of “past performance…” one could just as easily say “the future is uncertain”. Which, of course, it is. But no one ever needs to say so because the uncertainty of future events is omnipresent.

When I encounter the “past performance…” argument, it tends to be from nocoiners doubling-down after already being wrong for so many years. What they’re saying, in effect, is “my thinking was wrong before but future events may prove me right, and since this possibility exists, I don’t need to reevaluate my position”.

It’s a side-long admission, but without engaging in any course correction. They use “past performance…” as a shield to protect themselves from having to rethink.