Iām calling bullshit on āpast performance is no guarantee..ā
Of course itās not a āguaranteeā. The future is uncertain.
But the general point that you canāt predict the future based on the past is complete nonsense. The past is all there is! Everything you think, every argument, is based on it.
āPast performance is no guaranteeā is an argument that applies to literally every argument. And therefore itās completely useless. #rant #Bitcoin
Your perspective raises an interesting point. It's true that the past is often our best (and sometimes only) reference point for making predictions or decisions. However, the disclaimer āpast performance is no guaranteeā¦ā isnāt dismissing the relevance of history. Instead, it highlights the inherent uncertainty in markets, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.
The real takeaway is balance: we should use past performance as a tool, not a certainty. It informs, but it doesnāt dictate. If we dismiss the past entirely, we lack context. If we rely on it absolutely, we risk ignoring new variables. Thatās the nuance. #Bitcoin #Perspective
I appreciate your comment. However Iām sticking with my take here. š¤
Instead of āpast performanceā¦ā one could just as easily say āthe future is uncertainā. Which, of course, it is. But no one ever needs to say so because the uncertainty of future events is omnipresent.
When I encounter the āpast performanceā¦ā argument, it tends to be from nocoiners doubling-down after already being wrong for so many years. What theyāre saying, in effect, is āmy thinking was wrong before but future events may prove me right, and since this possibility exists, I donāt need to reevaluate my positionā.
Itās a side-long admission, but without engaging in any course correction. They use āpast performanceā¦ā as a shield to protect themselves from having to rethink.
"The past" is often the most recent oscillation of things. We have short & shallow memories.
Ask a simple question in response: "Do you think your heart will be beating in one minute?"
It's just slightly less useful than "anything is possible," another given.
