The real #Bitcoin / #BTC bull run starts in <2 weeks. 💁♂️
I don't make the rules, I just report them. 🤙
Discussion
2 weeks™️
🚨 BREAKING #BITCOIN / #BTC NEWS 🚨
"Nothing stops this train." - nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 🤙
We’re about to see what happens when there’s no corn for sale.
The corn famine of 2025 will be a humanitarian crisis.
We've been banging the drum on that exact sentiment for a while now. 🥁
#BITCOIN / #BTC IS GOING EXPONENTIALLY HIGHER WHETHER ANYONE LIKES IT OR NOT. 🤙
I think the first halvings were "supply shocks".
The sofar visible 4 year pattern was the result.
The next phase will probably be the "demand shock".
That phase will see way more demand than supply is willing to give.
Right now Strategy on it's own is buying more than all mining can provide...
All other demand has to be satisfied by holders.
Demand is only increasing but supply will not.
This basic principle (more demand than supply) can only mean higher prices.
For me the most realistic scenario is way more demand.
We only have a few companies (only one all in) and even less Governments tiptoeing into #Bitcoin.
The demand side is huge while the supply side is only getting smaller.
In my view we are getting ready for a "#Bitcoin panic".
Chances of all capital sloshing around in search for some gains will continue to smoothly flow into a absolutely hard capped commodity is very small.
If all capital starts to panic flow into that same hard capped commodity just to prevent the utter destruction caused by even more, let alone hyper, inflation, crazy things are a guarantee.
I've been mulling this over & I think that your analysis is largely correct, but lacks a small (but pivotal) piece of nuance; we all know the mining issuance halves, so for this purpose we need to slightly reframe "supply" as "supply for sale" (and not "supply in existence"). 🤔
We all know that price is simply an equilibrium between supply & demand. However, #Bitcoin is the first asset (that I know of) that hasn't respected this simple fundamental dynamic. 🤷♂️
From a sheerly technical perspective, ALL the historic #BTC price increases have all happened in an environment with an INCREASE in both demand AND supply for sale (which is an obvious anomaly/deviation from conventional wisdom about markets because the orange coin loves to break all models). 🙃
Really stop to think about the significance of that last paragraph. 🤯
Last cycle was actually the first cycle where the asset started overlapping with traditional supply/demand expectations (falling supply for sale & increasing price), but the price still rose during increasing AND decreasing supply-side trends. 👀
EVERY prior cycle has seen increased demand, but there has NEVER been an entire cycle (counted bottom to top) that experienced a decrease in the actual quantity of coins for sale…
…UNTIL NOW. 💁♂️
The amount of coins for sale now is the same as it was at the 2017 top, but the price is 5x higher; we have never actually achieved anything even vaguely resembling price equilibrium & "fair value" is still just a tingle in the balls of the free market gods. 🫠
I agree with your thesis of increasing demand, but Bitcoin has already proven that it is so unreasonably undervalued that it can simply not give a fuck about supply/demand mechanics & is capable of marching the price higher regardless. 👆
That's what I REALLY mean when I say " Bitcoin has never seen a supply shock". 🫴
However bullish we all think we are, not a single one of us is anywhere near bullish enough; thank you for coming to my TED talk. 🤙
I'm sorry that I lied to you all on #Nostr about the #Bitcoin / #BTC bull run continuing in ~2 weeks… 🫠🙏
…It was actually ~3.5 weeks; I hope that one day you can find it in yourselves to forgive me for my gargantuan ~240 hour margin of error. 😏😂
NEW #ATH, BITCHES; LET PRICE DISCOVERY SEASON RECOMMENCE. 🤙