Yes, 100% Hole punch seem to be doing a fantastic job.

Don't get me wrong, Nostr are also doing a fantastic job, it's the halfway house solution.

Not sure what the incentives are to running a relay, can anyone help me understand.

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There are no incentives to run a relay other than wanting to be helpful.

Perhaps true short term rn, but it can change..

for sure so far havent found the right product/mkt fit to help people find and use paid relays easily. But i think this is the primary incentive over time. I sure hope so

You are 100% on the money. Bitcoin started where every wallet was a node. The Electrum server/client model brought many to the space, but the financial incentives was bitcoin. Nostr cannot succeed without each client as a relay because ultimately there is no financial incentive to operate one. Private and secure bitcoin transaction use was an incentive to run a node. There is nothing for nostr...and it is much more costly. Any device working on this?