The U.S. is learning the hard way what 40 years of bad economic strategy looks like.

For decades, we went long dollars, Treasuries, and service jobs, while China went long commodities, factories, and gold. We exported our manufacturing, our productive base, and our leverage. Now we’re waking up to find we depend on China for everything from rare earths to weapons.

Reshoring sounds good on paper, but it’s a trap. Bringing production back home would send inflation through the roof and crush the Treasury market, forcing the Fed into yield curve control and money printing. At the same time, AI is hollowing out what’s left of white-collar work, leaving policymakers staring down a structural unemployment problem they’ll likely try to “fix” with UBI and more debt.

And now China is tightening control of rare earth exports, effectively saying USDs aren’t good enough anymore.

This is the Triffin dilemma playing out in real time. America built an economy that needs to export dollars to survive, even if it means importing its own decline.