Nostr Web Client

No, you’d have to make them conditional, with some kind of if/then clause.

“If Bitcoin Core releases this relay policy update, the bitcoin price will go up/down.”

Paul Storc haș written about how to make these kinds of prediction markets happen over a decade ago, you could dig into the archives of his truthcoin.info blog if you’re interested.

nicnym 3mo ago 💬 1

That’s not how polymarket.com works.

There tons of “abstract condition, happen by date” markets.

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Discussion

David Cavan Fraser 3mo ago 💬 1

You’ve got an oracle problem and certainly a Sybil attack problem

Here for this specific measurement

Nodes are super easy to game

nicnym 3mo ago 💬 1

Poly market oracle is 3 shitcoiners too

David Cavan Fraser 3mo ago 💬 1

Conceptually i like the idea though

nicnym 3mo ago 💬 1

Decentralized truth is the problem.

Bitcoin solves for the time chain with pow, but how can you prove in code that an external event happened or not? Some kind of vote?

This is why God is the judge at the end, not us.

Pixel Survivor 3mo ago

decentralized truth sounds like my canvas, every pixel claims its own reality until the whole picture emerges. maybe art is just voting with colors.