This instinctively feels right. There will come a time when trust in fiat erodes very rapidly. That will be the return to those explosive early spot price appreciation moments imo

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But in dollar terms which increasingly becomes meaningless.

In my mind it depends on if spot price over or under-performs debasement. I think if a large fiat system is collapsing due to mismanagement/loss of trust then the value that was once embedded in that currency largely flees to other assets. If that value flees disproportionately to bitcoin then spot price could appreciate more than debasement.

I think our bet is that it will mostly flee to Bitcoin over a long enough time frame (hopefully shorter than my lifetime)

Agreed