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The longer I’ve been in Bitcoin, the more the Stock-to-FOMO model feels like the right mental framework.

We’re in the middle, the most boring stage of Bitcoin price action. I keep thinking we’re close to the other side, but the middle might be longer than we expect.

Those who say Bitcoin price action will never look like the early days forget what their denominator is. Fiat only goes towards zero.

Until then, Bitcoiners who missed the early rise are left to patiently stack sats, slowly losing our minds on our way to Suddenly.

Thanks nostr:npub14uhkst639zvc2trx2nlsvk4yqkjp690zk89keytnzgmq2az0qmnq58ez89 for the chart

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Discussion

CraftCanna 2w ago 💬 1

This instinctively feels right. There will come a time when trust in fiat erodes very rapidly. That will be the return to those explosive early spot price appreciation moments imo

Ben Justman🍷 2w ago

But in dollar terms which increasingly becomes meaningless.

CraftCanna 2w ago 💬 1

In my mind it depends on if spot price over or under-performs debasement. I think if a large fiat system is collapsing due to mismanagement/loss of trust then the value that was once embedded in that currency largely flees to other assets. If that value flees disproportionately to bitcoin then spot price could appreciate more than debasement.

Ben Justman🍷 2w ago

I think our bet is that it will mostly flee to Bitcoin over a long enough time frame (hopefully shorter than my lifetime)

CraftCanna 2w ago

Agreed

𝕞𝕪𝕡𝕒𝕥𝕙𝕥𝕠𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕖 2w ago 💬 1

Having long time preference and doing nothing are not easy but will be rewarded.

Ben Justman🍷 2w ago

Just keep swimming

Jose Sammut 2w ago 💬 1

If Stock-to-FOMO is true, the middle will be another 10 years at least, possibly 20 years.

The US dollar will survive debt restructuring. If the markets were hungry for hard money, gold would be a lot more expensive, and the bond market would have collapsed a long time ago.

It's easy to look at the present state of the US dollar, and see it collapsing, but the US dollar has always been in a state of perpetual collapse. It was never designed to be sustainable.

Ben Justman🍷 2w ago

I think the US dollar surviving debt restructuring will look like the suddenly part.

Just because it exists doesn't mean it will maintain value compared to today