That people think that a banking crisis would be a boon for bitcoin is really just a sentiment I so strongly disagree with. Bitcoiners thought the US sanctions on Russia last year was going to be the final nail in the coffin of the Dollar and there was going to be a giant global exit from the dollar in 2022.

The reality is, bitcoin is just not treated as a safe haven asset by the broader market. Which doesn’t mean it won’t come to be seen as one, eventually. I happen to think it will.

But bitcoins value is *highly* dependent right now speculative investment in that future. It’s why bitcoin is more correlated with the NASDAQ than almost anything else.

To wit, a lot of bitcoin’s utility is completely dependent on it having deep exchange markets that bridge into the legacy banking system. Should this break down, it will be a headwind on bitcoin in the short term. I think a lot of the people who think bitcoin would go “the the moon” in that scenario are going to find themselves dumbfounded when the absolute opposite happens.

The rise of bitcoin is a real trend I believe in. My timescale for it is on the longer side of the equation than many. It’s why I don’t pay attention to the price and focus just on building utility around bitcoin. Because that’s how it will become a unit of account unto itself. Which it’s nowhere close to being today.

This is just about being realistic.