What is the relationship between hashrate and block distribution?

Current data on #Monero

https://miningpoolstats.stream/monero

Hashrate: This is the computing power contributed by a pool or miner.

The higher a pool's hashrate is relative to the total network hashrate, the greater its probability of finding a block.

Block distribution: This reflects the blocks actually found in a period (e.g., the last 100 blocks).

In theory, it should match the hashrate percentage, but since finding blocks is a probabilistic process, there are short-term fluctuations.

Practical relationship

In the long term: block distribution converges to the relative hashrate of each pool.

In the short term: there may be random deviations. A pool with 20% hashrate may mine 10% or 30% of the blocks in a small sample.

When a pool reaches 50% of blocks over long periods, it also concentrates approximately 50% of the hashrate → risk of centralization.

In summary: the hashrate is the “bet” and the distribution of blocks is the observed “result.”