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I'm saving metals disks and not Bitcoins. My money is already where my mouth is. (Although I do have a few thousand sats from nostr tips)

I am confident that literally any material will outperform Bitcoin over 50 years.

Why?

Because there are no Bitcoins. It is a ledger that tracks nothing, just like USD and EUR. Satoshi owes all of us a bunch of coins for what we've mined for him, but he won't & can't pay because Bitcoinium doesn't exist. Just like Uncle Sam can't & won't pay gold because Uncle Sam owes more gold than has ever been mined.

You left the fiat cult and joined the same cult. Your tokens are backed by the full faith & credit of Uncle Sat.

NotSatoshi 2y ago

You claim no such cult, clearly. Your discs have an advantage of historical precedent; millions have chosen to store their value therein over millennia, and many will continue to do so.

They compete for cash balances with every other possible storage of value. As such they, along with every other such option, will bleed value to any superior asset.

An asset that combines the attractive features of your discs, but adapted for the dIgital age and with far superior unforgeable scarcity, has arrived, and its price discovery will continue.

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Discussion

a source familiar with the matter 2y ago

The attractive features of my disks include all the uses to which the physical material might be put

Your ledger has none of that

a source familiar with the matter 2y ago

"compete for cash balances"

Yes, cold hard cash

...how can cash be cold and hard?

NotSatoshi 2y ago

So you’re bound to specie for its rhetorical consistency? 😜

a source familiar with the matter 2y ago

I study the past in part to see through the psyop of the present

NotSatoshi 2y ago

I suspect we agree on more than we disagree. Goldbugs have been structurally correct for about 50 years now, but their champion has not proven the fiat-killer that they had hoped

a source familiar with the matter 2y ago

Gold is an inanimate object, as is green cotton.

Gold is not supposed to kill fiat - fiat's own contradictions will do that (and many, many fiat currencies have blown up over the past 50 years).

Imagine that fiat does in fact die. I think it's quite clear that material goods will retain trade value, and based on their scarcity & usefulness we can work out exchange ratios and rebuild an industrial economy. But what will determine the exchange ratio of Bitcoin to silver? To oil? To beef?

NotSatoshi 2y ago

Your question implies that the end of fiat would mean return to a barter society then? Are there no computers in this scenario? ALL assets theoretically undergo continual price discovery in the free market; bitcoin as a digital asset is no different (the critical point there is that btc is unique among digital assets in its unforgeable scarcity). To make the claim that it will not continue to have an exchange value - whether measured in gold ounces, or wheat bushels, or whatever - you’d have to explain why that might be the case. What would change, that humans won’t continue to value bitcoin?

a source familiar with the matter 2y ago

I imagine the fiat financial network collapsing

Are there Bitcoiners building bitcoin-denominated commodity markets? If not, are you really serious about replacing fiat, or is Bitcoin just another fiat asset?

NotSatoshi 2y ago

Bitcoiners need not create those markets any more than silver enthusiasts should try to create silver-denominated markets. Bitcoin needs only to continue to slowly (and perhaps, at some point, quickly) bleed cash balances from the pool of ‘all other assets.’ This, based on its absolute scarcity and its near-immaculate immortality, it is nearly certain to do.

Money is an endurance race. Hence, the repeated success of gold across civilizations and millennia. All bitcoin has to do is similarly not die. It does so much more, but simple survival is the crux.