The contrarian view to declining CAGRs:

The CAGR declines for each cycle based on type of adoption. Last cycle was the last cycle mostly driven by retail. When nation states and large institutions start buying full year’s bitcoin production (~150,000 BTC) in the years upcoming, the supply shock(s) will be more similar to the early retail cycles. We might get to $5M/btc relatively “quickly” and then have diminishing returns to bull runs from there.

I think disproving the “diminishing returns” narrative is the surprise of this cycle.