Subnostr

declining cagr. the next 4 years will NOT return 70%.. more like 30-40% if we're lucky, maybe 50% if 2021/2 was an outlief

there are many good calculators for this.

everyone's situation is different (where living, cost of living, carrying costs, intent to travel, etc).

also helps if you can adapt and cut expenses when needed. QOL is a huge factor (do you want health insurance? a big house with a garage?)

imho, if your savings are 10x+ what you can live on in the bull, then you've probably crossed the threshold. on the risky side, at the lows of the bear if your savings are 4x annual expenses, you can get by. this probably wont be true in 30 years from now, let alone 100 or post subsidy due to declining cagr and volatility. retiring in a bull market means youve got to stomach the potential drawdown. retiring in a bear means forgoing fiat mining cheaper sats. if you have additional cash flow from side hustles, its a lot easier to stomach and work when you want to.

BoomTown 1y ago

The contrarian view to declining CAGRs:

The CAGR declines for each cycle based on type of adoption. Last cycle was the last cycle mostly driven by retail. When nation states and large institutions start buying full year’s bitcoin production (~150,000 BTC) in the years upcoming, the supply shock(s) will be more similar to the early retail cycles. We might get to $5M/btc relatively “quickly” and then have diminishing returns to bull runs from there.

I think disproving the “diminishing returns” narrative is the surprise of this cycle.

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Discussion

Nice and Kind Vic 1y ago

yes. we balance the possible with the probable to promote optimal outcomes

Bill Cypher 1y ago

Back 6 months before ETF approval in a telegram group I called ETF approval, ATH before halving, and greater returns than previous cycle. 1 still pending.

No receipt because I quit telegram.