People still clinging to the 4 year cycle make me chuckle. We hit 95% of the total bitcoin ever already having been mined yesterday, but somehow the halvings are supposed to matter? The 3-5 year debt refinancing cycle (which averaged to 4 years, starting in 2008) is effectively broken from the 2021 and later Fed activity. What's supposed to make it continue, chart looks-maxing? 😄.

Anyone watching dollar macro right now knows we're in an extremely tight liquidity scenario. The standing repo facility utilization has gone through the roof in the last 2 weeks. SOFR-IORB has been fairly steadily a positive difference. Meanwhile layoffs, the Beveridge curve, and other labor indicators are all flashing.

Do we think that there's just not going to be stimulus this time? Do we think the central banks are just going to let deflation rip their house of cards apart?

If the answer is no, I don't know how anyone can possibly think we're in for a major bear market. Not that I'd complain if we are; I'm definitely stacking, and a bitcoin dip is a raise in my salary. I just don't remotely think we're getting that lucky right now.

There's already been favorable changes to tax laws; the standard deduction's been raised, brackets have been redrawn, and deductions on tips have been added. Meanwhile, outside the US Canada has already restarted QE, and I'm sure there's more that's just not been on my radar given the pain that's been inflicted on the Eurodollar system (it's about time...). What comes around in early 2026 and even later 2025 isn't something I can predict of course, because (thank God) I'm not inside the heads of Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, etc. But something has to, unless they're just letting the dollar rip everything apart, and handing elections over to to the opposition.