Disclaimer, I have a 100% failure rate at predicting short term Bitcoin price
I am starting to agree with many that we are entering a new phase of Bitcoin price action, outside the 4 year cycle. I think we might be entering a more stable period for Bitcoin.
Despite the current low price, both the dips and peaks of this cycle are nothing compared to previous cycles. Perhaps we are entering a stabilisation period for Bitcoin, with a general upward sawtooth pattern.
I made a bet with a friend shortly after the last halving. My friend holds Bitcoin, but is not a Bitcoiner. He holds because he knows, over time, the price always goes up, but he’s busy running his company and so relies on our monthly dinners for updates on Bitcoin and other matters.
I bet him that the price would reach $500K by the end of this year. The looser would pay the bill at our next monthly dinner which would be held at a Michelin star restaurant.
When I made the bet, I actually thought the price would reach $1M, but didn’t have the confidence to make that bet. I also thought, based on previous cycles, that once reaching that figure, it would crash within 3 - 6 months to around $250K. My intention was to sell close to peak and buy back at the bottom.
I don’t believe this is going to happen now, but I do believe the price will, over time, and over the next four years slowly rise towards $1M.
If this is the case, I will not be able to dramatically increase my holding, but I will be freer to live on the Bitcoin standard spending Bitcoin daily without worrying about dramatic price volatility.
Once again, take Bitcoin price action advice from Jim Cramer before you take any advice from me, I have consistently been shown to be close to 100% wrong in my short term price predictions.
