Replying to Avatar The Stacker Monster

nostr:nprofile1qqsqfjg4mth7uwp307nng3z2em3ep2pxnljczzezg8j7dhf58ha7ejgeyqy52 nostr:nprofile1qyf8wumn8ghj7cnfw3ehgctrdvhxzursqy28wumn8ghj7cnvv9ehgu3wvcmh5tnc09aqqgy9hk6cwhs38hxfjjvtgarrv3ycsthptgw8s922kp7qvk68xwwkwg05kxcv nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgswaehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5qzpduedsvruqmd7fuq99zmszaaezct7kt3ke3p4p4lx45uxvs30uramc7k5h nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqtxwaehxw309anxjmr5v4ezumn0wd68ytnhd9hx2tmwwp6kyvtjw3k8zcmp8pervct409shwdtwx45rxmp4xseryerdx3ehy7f4v3axvet9xsmrjdnxw9jnsuekw9nh2ertwvmkg6n5veen7cnjdaskgcmpwd6r6arjw4jsqgq6lcx8fc7h0p8t4ya9u0a92jnwavqe9rgjwwdw3wjgxfuxsz8rd5mths8c

pretty disappointing price action when comparing historically. maybe nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cnfw33k76twd4shs6tdv9kxjum5wvhx7mnvd9hx2qg4waehxw309ajkgetw9ehx7um5wghxcctwvsqzq3e0gs8jnmued6f2rp4c6vs07xqvs4vs8zpwt82smcdch4txjvq76kl2yj supercycle is correct and we just slowly grind higher and higher with no big drawdowns?
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HODL 5mo ago 💬 2

I’m more and more of that opinion myself

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The Stacker Monster 5mo ago

i'll say, i don't hate it. i just hope it isn't like 2021 with both a disappointing upside and we still got the massive drawdown

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Freedom 5mo ago 💬 1

The amount of mining rewards doesn't matter most of the time. But at the bottom and the top, they are the only thing that matters. In a bull, as price goes up, mining rewards equal an increasing chunk of the new money flow until they crowd it out:

100k$ / BTC = 16.5B$ / year

1M$ / BTC = 165B$ / year

10M$ / BTC = 1.65T / year

MSTR and ETFs got roughly 10% of supply @100B. At 1M$/BTC they would've only absorbed the block subsidy

See ? Whatever the mining subsidy, it will eventually suck up any amount of money thrown at it.

This cycle there are more delays and less liquidity for the new money. Imagine selling a house for Bitcoin: takes a big amount of fomo and can take many months...  Approval for banks, states etc is slow...

The longer the price remains low the less the new money flow will be wasted on the weak hands, rendered weaker by the big items being traded for their Bitcoin.

The blow-off top may arrive later...  But when sellers finally get exhausted, the later, the more brutal the bull will be.