The amount of mining rewards doesn't matter most of the time. But at the bottom and the top, they are the only thing that matters. In a bull, as price goes up, mining rewards equal an increasing chunk of the new money flow until they crowd it out:

100k$ / BTC = 16.5B$ / year

1M$ / BTC = 165B$ / year

10M$ / BTC = 1.65T / year

MSTR and ETFs got roughly 10% of supply @100B. At 1M$/BTC they would've only absorbed the block subsidy

See ? Whatever the mining subsidy, it will eventually suck up any amount of money thrown at it.

This cycle there are more delays and less liquidity for the new money. Imagine selling a house for Bitcoin: takes a big amount of fomo and can take many months...  Approval for banks, states etc is slow...

The longer the price remains low the less the new money flow will be wasted on the weak hands, rendered weaker by the big items being traded for their Bitcoin.

The blow-off top may arrive later...  But when sellers finally get exhausted, the later, the more brutal the bull will be.