In my opinion #Nostr will grow similarly to how #Bitcoin grows.

Nostr is being built by the “visionaries” and used by the early adopters. It will continue to exist and gradually improve but due to its anti-fragile architecture there will be times when external events (eg things akin to Covid censorship) will catalyze large growth spurts for Nostr relative to centralized and censorship-prone platforms.

Similar to how Bitcoin simply exists and works as it’s slowly built out by global visionaries but certain events (eg hot inflation, bail ins / outs, bank runs, halvings, etc) catalyze massive spurts of adoption.

The human errors within centralized systems consistently (but intermittently) push large swaths of users to the anti-fragile alternatives over time.

The decentralized alternatives are superior, but nascent. They need to continue to be built and that will take more time. But it’s happening. I think Bitcoin has reached the inflection point of no return, though it’s not reached its final form yet either. Still ≈ a decade of work to be hashed out.

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