Replying to Avatar Geist

Well, is the economy actually booming? Its the age old question. There is really no rigorous definition of what that would even mean.

-Stocks and real estate are up, which is a sign of inflation or at least the expectation of inflation (people expecting the fed to pivot, or thinking the fed didn't go far enough to break inflation).

-GDP? Is it up, is it down, does it matter? It also isn't a great measure, government spending accounts for (IIRC) more than 50% of GDP, and there is no accurate measure of inflation adjusted GDP since we don't have an accurate measure of inflation to begin with.

-Unemployment was low last I checked, great, its so low its almost negative, wait, people have multiple jobs because they can't afford rent.

-Consumer spending? If inflation expectations among the public are prevelant, then consumer spending will be high.

Then, they aren't taxing everyone, businesses can avoid taxes by making investments. I don't think changing that fixes things, due to the slowdown in economic activity, but its fair to point to the destructive effects it has, like driving up real estate prices, sucking useful bodies up into bullshit jobs, eating the societies capital stock like advanced machinery etc.

What we don't see or have a measure of is how great things would be without regulation, fiduciary credit, and taxes. You can look at the swift kick in the ass the automotive market has gotten from Tesla, as the first company to deliver serious competition in an industry which has been protected religiously. Or AMD under Lisa Su, which took AMD from a second rate brand to dominance in CPU performance and a very competitive split for gaming console hardware. Under a system where you are rewarded for being a behemoth there's no incentive to innovate, so these people are rare, but they give us a glimpse at how things might be if the monopolies weren't protected.

My general outlook on today's economy is that this is probably just the eye of the storm, bailouts, speculation, and time (like, corporate bonds haven't rolled over at the higher interest rates yet) are what's keeping things together, things aren't great, the economy isnt booming, it just looks that way. In 10 years we will look back at this how we look at 2007-2010 now, where the median american lost 45% of their net worth.

The wild thing is that the stock market is inextricably linked to the health of the economy, with employment and inflation flagging one another with every move the stock market makes. In 2008 we saw some wild collapses in both the stock market and real estate, and shortly after that the layoffs began. We honestly *need* the stock market to correct at present to preserve what has largely been a "normal" economic ebb and flow. If it continues just going through the roof unabated the fall is going to be cataclysmic.

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Well, in general a healthy free market will have companies that have losses or fail; as Thomas so well said 'losses are just as important as gains', losses are a signal to correct the misallocation of scarce resources.

The problem today is, we passed the rubicon of the threat of cataclysmic downside a long time ago; our fiat system is based on the issuance of debt, every dollar in circulation was created as part of a loan (home loans, government bonds etc.) with a corresponding interest rate; to keep the dollars flowing, we have to issue more debt, making the problem worse for the future. If too many businesses fail and can't repay their debt, the banks can't make repayments on their debt and fail, now people can't withdraw their money for paying their home and auto loans and those lenders get screwed, its contagion. Is this a risk today? Well, there's maybe $1-1.5 in circulation, there's ~$32T in government debt, $5T in credit card debt (I think that's right), ~$170T in unfunded liabilities, and $2,000T in derivative exposures for top level bankers like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. So, yes, its a debt bomb, its designed to cause so much economic upheaval that it scares the public into bailouts like we had in 2008, and so the cycle continues.