No, exponential growth. Maybe I am off by 5 years, but by more not. Either bitcoin is a disruption than it will reach 90% adoption in the next 20 years or it isn’t and it will be dead by then.
I don’t know of a single disruption that didn’t follow the s-curve.
5.2M per coin seems reasonable to me by 2035. I don’t think we hit 50,000,000 that soon.
So far every halving has added a zero and the steep part of the s-curve is not even here, yet.
Each halvening has also produced smaller troughs to peaks, each cycle has produced less gains than the previous. Each cycle is tighter. I don’t think we are that close to the steep part of the s curve we still have some headwinds ahead. Either way 5M is still a 236x in 12 years 😂 time will tell.
Well, but if Bitcoin reaches 90% adoption by 2035 then it should have a marketcap in the order of magnitude I suggested.
And that is just by purchasing power, nominal is basically guaranteed. Even Druckenmiller forecasts the USD to be obsolete by 35
I think it will be slower than that but 🤷♂️ we’ll see in 12 years
Of course it may. This is a first in history. Never in recorded history before have we deliberately invented a money from scratch.
Still, my base case is that this thing goes the way of all other disruptions.
Especially since that price target doesn’t include Fiat printing nor economic growth.
lol why would it be dead?
this is a full on bulltard take
Because inventions that cross the threshold of viability either go s-curve up or s-curve to zero.
Not aware of any historical evidence for a third option.
