Subnostr

China Afternoon Missive

The Law of Unintended Consequences will play out at least with #China and the moves by Trump to levy tariffs.

While America, regardless of which party is in power, projects duality of there being either friend or foe, China’s approach has always been to find transactional opportunities with all.

At this juncture the threat is of “America First” quickly turning into “America Alone”. Unlike 2017, the Chinese have gamed out this exact scenario. If you watch carefully, any apparent defensive action taken by China will - in all reality - be an offensive play which will further alienate American policy across the globe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna190346

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Discussion

Chris 11mo ago

I sense trumps overplaying his hand and China knows it….

Time for Xi to (formally) repatriate Taiwan? Or too soon?

Peter Alexander 11mo ago

Those around Trump know how and where #China can apply significant pressure. It’s now a dance and, my thinking, is that all of this right now is to layout pieces on the board that will lead to a massive “deal” in the second half of this year.

As for Taiwan, Beijing will do nothing and doesn’t need to. It is only a matter of time before Taiwan’s leaders see the world as it is rather than as they want it to be. And I’m fairly certain this opinion will not make me many friends.

Chris 11mo ago

Brilliant and thanks for your candor.

My background is debt markets and international finance.

I sense a massive dislocation brewing in 2H 2025 for “western” sov debt markets.

Requiring central bank intervention on a scale not even seen during Covid.

Massively inflationary (with a slight lag) by early 2026.

Gold and Bitcoin will springboard to previously unimaginable levels. And if Bitcoin manages to stay decentralised and secure, it likely de-monetises gold (and sov debt) by 2029-2033.

Faster than even most “maxis” are expecting.

Just my 2 cents. 😉

Jake Woodhouse 11mo ago

As you mentioned before, China has a more low time preference approach, so that would play into exactly what you’re saying

Either way: fascinating to watch a politician come in and really shake things up (right or wrong)

Peter Alexander 11mo ago

The Chinese operate with the lowest of low time preferences.

Meanwhile Trump has 12 months to get done what he wants. By this time next year the circus will rev up for the mid term elections.

So America is probably best described as having the highest of high time preferences.

Jake Woodhouse 11mo ago

The world of Austrian economics is arguably the highest roi of subjects I’ve studied the past 4 years

Helps you see the world for what it actually is a lot of the time