this sounds harder than that but it would be an interesting topic of research, might do some digging later on my own..

out of curiosity have you read the riot report from a while back? https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yzjZJB20A74vQb0-wey18VEELklme1Rq/view

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Just skimmed it. Seems good. The charts look too volatile to use for predictions at first glance. Might need log scale? Hard to say.