"Fundamentally, if ETFs managed by TradFi asset managers are too successful, they will completely destroy Bitcoin. This prediction is based on an important subtle yet profound difference between Bitcoin and every other monetary instrument humanity has ever used.
Every other monetary asset human civilisation has ever used exists physically due to natural laws. Gold as a substance is Gold not because we say it is, but rather because of an arrangement of atoms. The interactions between these atoms are governed by universal laws. Fiat, which is some mumbo jumbo printed on a piece of paper, is still a physical sheet of matter. A piece of paper is still paper regardless of whether you believe it has monetary value. If you dug a hole and deposited gold and reams of paper and came back in 100 years, the gold and paper would still exist. Bitcoin is completely different.
Bitcoin is the first monetary asset in human history that exists only if it moves. After Bitcoin block rewards hit zero around 2140, miners will only be rewarded for validating transactions via transaction fees. That means miners will only receive Bitcoin income if the network is used. In essence, if Bitcoin moves, it has value. But if there was never another Bitcoin transaction between two entities, miners would be unable to afford the energy it costs to secure the network. As a result, they would shut off their machines. Without the miners, the network dies, and Bitcoin vanishes.
Blackrock, the world’s largest TradFi asset manager, is in the asset accumulation game. They vacuum up assets, store them in a metaphorical vault, issue a tradable security, and charge a management fee for their “hard” work. They don’t use the things they hold on behalf of their clients, which presents a problem for Bitcoin if we take an extreme view of a possible future.
Imagine a future where the largest Western and Chinese asset managers hold all the Bitcoin in circulation. This happens organically as people confuse a financial asset with a store of value. Because of their confusion and laziness, people purchase Bitcoin ETF derivatives rather than buying and hodling Bitcoin in self-custodied wallets. Now that a handful of firms hold all the Bitcoin, and have no actual use for the Bitcoin blockchain, the coins never move again. The end result is miners turn off their machines as they can no longer pay for the energy required to run them. Bye-bye, Bitcoin!
It is beautiful when you think about it. If Bitcoin becomes just another state-controlled financial asset, it dies because it isn’t used. The death of Bitcoin then creates space for another crypto monetary network to grow in its place. This network could just be a reboot of Bitcoin or something different that is an improved adaptation of the original Bitcoin. Either way, the people will once again have a non-state-controlled monetary asset and financial system. Hopefully, the second time around, we will learn not to hand our private keys to the baldies.
To that end, when thinking about surviving the ongoing fiat debasement, you must choose a side. Either you are trading a financial asset to earn more fiat, or you are trying to preserve wealth in energy terms alongside using a financial system outside of the state’s control. In the former case, trade ETFs to your heart’s content. That is why they exist. In the latter case, you must buy Bitcoin and withdraw it from the centralised exchange to your own self-custodial wallet."
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