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My current macro opinions:

There are TONS of reasons to be bearish about the economy and risk assets right now.

I get it. I talk about them often.

But there are also a couple of reasons to be crabbish-to-bullish about risk assets:

1. Net liquidity is essentially trending sideways

2. A looming Fed pause rally

Also...

In the near term, #bitcoin daily price action looks like it's on the cusp of flipping from short-term oversold levels to the next leg higher... Possibly to ~$40k by late June or early July.

(For infotainment purposes only. I am long $btc so I am obviously biased. Not individual trading or investment advice.)
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Crizzo 2y ago

What about the debt ceiling sucking liquidity once it gets raised? Lyn talked about the Treasury needing to refill it's $500B Fed account, plus Treasury sales will resume.

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pukka 2y ago

That’s a good question

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less 2y ago

That’s definitely worth considering.

But remember that there is also $2.2T of ready liquidity sitting in the overnight reverse repo market… which could go a long way to offset a rising TGA balance.

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Crizzo 2y ago

That's a lot! Ty for the response.

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josh 2y ago

That’s the big banks money though isn’t it? Can the fed tap into that?