I think this is impossible to calculate because in 30 years fiat will be gone and with it the denominator usually used for this.
Personally, I use 30%, which is insanely conservative. Shorter timeframe though.
Discussion
I don’t think that the most conservative approach you can take is Fiat being gone in 30 years. That feels like more of a neutral case. Obviously most would consider that an aggressive case.
They've gotten better at "stabilizing" the fiat shitshow, but historically speaking, assuming fiat will survive another 30 years is pretty bullish on fiat lol.
I meant the 30% as conservative though.