How likely is it that quantum computing cracks SHA-256?
According the Grok...
In the next 5 years? ~0%
In the next 10 years? <10%
Discussion
Yeah but what about ECDSA encryption ?
What about it? Teach me
ECSDA is the issue as it’s the cryptography that produces a public key from a private key. It’s the public key that can be cracked by shors algorithm.
Here's what Grok said about the likelihood of quantum computing cracking ECDSA:
• Near-term (by 2030): Very low, often estimated at under 5–20% by sources including AI models and researchers, as quantum progress has been incremental rather than revolutionary.   Claims of imminent breakthroughs are often overhyped, and current devices can’t sustain Shor’s algorithm on real-world key sizes. 
• Medium-term (2030–2040): Moderate and increasing, as investments in quantum tech accelerate, but still contingent on unsolved physics and engineering challenges.  
• Long-term (beyond 2040): High if quantum scaling succeeds, but this assumes no major roadblocks.
Thanks for sharing
The numbers are really hard to wrap your head around. Basically there are the same amount of molecules in the observable universe are there are possible Bitcoin Wallets. A 77 digits long number.
