Bitcoin Pre-mortem:
It's 2033. Bitcoin is irrelevant. Why did it fail?
(and how can we avoid that fate?)
Discussion
We didn't follow #[2] ; we did stack stats and but we didn't stay humble
- Paperification.
- Stratum V2 never took.
- #KYC acceptance.
- Too few prioritized privacy.
- Death by a thousand speedy trials.
- GreatReset ban coordination.
The G20 governments have tracked down & put all of the Bitcoiners living in their countries into goulags. They found them through utilizing an AI algorithm that accelerates on-chain analytics to identify and locate transactions.
Not enough Bitcoiners were coin-joining and using lighting for payments.
We've focused too much on cool math and code and not enough on actual real-world use cases.
Just tried to zap you but seems your address is invalid?
Likewise. It said error fetching invoice.
Can you try multiple times with small values and tell me if the error persists? Also, are you in one of the US sanctioned countries?
Doesn’t have to be sanctioned I believe. Anything other than what’s listed here will be blocked https://zebedee.io/countries
We've built too many things for hardcore bitcoiners and too little things for normal people.
Gotta keep chipping away at the UX challenges.
Zaps and POS Lightning are getting there…
Still, we have much further to go.
Because people were HODLing it and not using it…
I paid with Bitcoin this afternoon, did you?
Unfortunately they don’t accept Bitcoin where I live so I pay with CC and pay the statements with BTC
They didn't where I paid untill I convinced the guy. I often at least ask so they know people are willing to pay with it.
This is the best approach. I always ask to pay in #Bitcoin too. Mostly I get a weird look but more and more people ask questions as they got interested. Much different than the experience few years ago.
2033 : bitcoin was taken over by monero which provides privacy and became the world's most used money for this readon. bitcoin trades at 22.300 usd and monero trades at 50.000.000 . 100 dollars buy one egg
Adjustment in expectations.
We didn't learn the lessons of snowcrash :
Religion is needed to preserve integrity.
Without religious thought, false prophets come to dilute the message, add KYC, refuse updates etc.
Religion is needed to steel the mind of those who aren't adept in technology. Religion is what we call macimalism today.
When that failed, Bitcoin failed. That is the bulwark against malicious forks, sweet lies and spies in the night.
We decided it was best to trust politicians and government (read: legal corruption) with our life (read: singular period of existence).
They have only your personal best interest at heart, and seek only for you to live a happy and fulfilling life (under their personally prosperous rule, and at your expense).
The reason bitcoin can’t fail is oppression never lasts. It’s a shared idea now, regardless of technical implementations.
But also just Yin and yang.
A shitcoin was created what rewards users for bloating bitcoin UTXOs. The shitcoin took of to the moon(probably sponsored by government) and bitcoin UTXO size grew enormously. As a result the bitcoin node was really expensive to run and it got centralizes really quickly.
Where were a few nodes remaining and G7 governments introduced regulations what make these few nodes comply with KYC and sensor transactions.
KYC and custodial solutions enabled the government to do what it did to gold
Civilization collapsed. People using shells for money again
1. Sufficient liquidity didn't come into btc/fiat markets.
Exp: For the next decade atleast, till we transition to using Bitcoin to buy goods and services, exchanges are necessary to onboard people. Especially Bitcoin-focused exchanges. More volume on spot markets for different fiat currencies is better. Especially for those outside of USD, EUR, GBP, CNY, JPY and the other big ones.
2. Connections between full nodes aren't sufficiently private.
This is what projects like BIP324 is trying to achieve by raising the cost of doing deep packet inspection, MITM, etc.
3. Supply chains of ASICs doesn't get sufficiently distributed.
We need more manufacturers from the global south producing ASICs outside of existing production regions.
4. User-friendly Privacy.
I don't have well-informed thoughts about this except that developers think existing privacy solutions are not sufficient to make Bitcoin fungible.
Personally, I think taproot made multisigs more private.
5. Lightning UX.
Of course Bitcoin has to scale and existing UX on lightning is simply not good enough. Important question is: can people without technical expertise be able to run a node, open and close channels and route transactions. I believe we can get there. We must get there.
Governments banned bitcoin, people complied. This is the law, you know.