So, a 3/1 bet implies a 25% chance (or 0.25 in my range of 0.01 to 1.00) that the outcome will be "yes."

Now, comparing this to my given probabilities:

0.13 for "yes"

0.87 for "no"

This suggests that the 3/1 odds (which imply a 0.25 probability) are less confident about the "yes" outcome than the given probability of 0.13.

Therefore, I can represent the 3/1 odds as 0.25 within a probability range from 0.01 to 1.00.

more likely than my example but not anywhere near it should be unfortunately

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Discussion

Polymarket has a 3:1 chance he grants clemency.

So yeah

but its 75%

we're both right 🤣🤣