Dunno about this market
but Polymarket has 3:1 Trump follows through.
That said, I'm betting he doesn't.
nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u asked; What if Trump doesn’t do what he says he’ll do..?
If we learn anything about history, the markets price everything in and they're never wrong
let's hope for once they are wrong for Ross' sake🙏
Discussion
So, a 3/1 bet implies a 25% chance (or 0.25 in my range of 0.01 to 1.00) that the outcome will be "yes."
Now, comparing this to my given probabilities:
0.13 for "yes"
0.87 for "no"
This suggests that the 3/1 odds (which imply a 0.25 probability) are less confident about the "yes" outcome than the given probability of 0.13.
Therefore, I can represent the 3/1 odds as 0.25 within a probability range from 0.01 to 1.00.
more likely than my example but not anywhere near it should be unfortunately