nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u asked; What if Trump doesn’t do what he says he’ll do..?
If we learn anything about history, the markets price everything in and they're never wrong
let's hope for once they are wrong for Ross' sake🙏
Hmm... I'm not a gambler, buuuut... Looks like you could bet $12 ish and win $100 ish... Who'd miss $12?
Wait... That's in sats.... I guess I gotta look this thing up
The premise is,
you buy 100 shares of 0.13sats = 13sats
if you are correct, you are paid 100 shares at 1sat each = 100sats
87sats gain
conversely
you buy 100 shares of 0.87sats = 87sats
if you are correct, you are paid 100 shares
at 1sat each = 100sats
13sats gain
Oh that's way simpler than I was imagining
Dunno about this market
but Polymarket has 3:1 Trump follows through.
That said, I'm betting he doesn't.
So, a 3/1 bet implies a 25% chance (or 0.25 in my range of 0.01 to 1.00) that the outcome will be "yes."
Now, comparing this to my given probabilities:
0.13 for "yes"
0.87 for "no"
This suggests that the 3/1 odds (which imply a 0.25 probability) are less confident about the "yes" outcome than the given probability of 0.13.
Therefore, I can represent the 3/1 odds as 0.25 within a probability range from 0.01 to 1.00.
more likely than my example but not anywhere near it should be unfortunately
