Replying to Avatar S!ayer

Does the market want it? Idk look around you right now and reach for the nearest thing and flip it over.

just because you restricted things like Huawei and BYD it doesn't mean there isn't demand. A whole world exists. For every Tesla I see here in Bangkok I see fifteen BYDs and they look sick AF

American polices are very communist in a way, not free market capitalism but regulated and controlled. Force sell TikTok, for instance.

China is and has always been about trade. They have a 5000 year history of doing that when foreigners aren't attacking them.
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umni 3mo ago

I'm specifically referring to energy production and the possibility of overproduction or slow down in demand.

Often these big government projects over shoot and suffer from observation bias when setting targets.

Importantly, the increase of production in the US market shows better RR. They might move in tandem with the china, never catching up. i would say less likely.

Chinese headwinds for energy production:

What if US actually starts to on shore more industrial production?

What are the effects of de-globalization? What if china does not tolerate/embrace btc mining well the us does?

What if US pulls off the stable coin play and can directly export inflation around the world in competition with the chinese equivalent? It sets a growth rate ceiling for chinese debt. Who's going to pay for the continued construction of these power plants, if not debt or demand?

From a trade perspective US energyenergy production is more interesting.

I agree, america has become more communist at the same time the chinese are becoming less. Both are centrally planned collectivist states.

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S!ayer 3mo ago

They don't need more energy, supply is well over Chinese domestic demand. Majority of that supply is now coming from renewables like wind, solar and hydro vs coal. China still uses a lot of coal.

Their energy mix is dependant on industry.

There's no ways the USA will ramp up steel and ship building (two heavy industries) to the same level as China unless the USA has enough energy to do it, which they don't and steel industry in the USA is declining substantially. For example, what USA builds in tonnage in one year, it's within a month of what China produces

IMO the only thing you can ride in the USA is NASDAQ 100, and even then only 7 or 8 stocks. Their valuation alone carries the entire s&p 500.

Canada energy production is what I'm invested in, yet delivery is done through Texas and not in Canada which is a huge problem at only 4m bbl/day, it's constrained by the USA.

Even LPG is down at least 55% off the highs, and yet the USA blew up Nord stream 1 & 2 just to be sole supplier of LPG to Europe.

Thus cheaper OPEC+ suppliers means China can buy and use much more cheaper than before.

In regards to stable coins etc. : no one wants to hold dollars in reserve anymore, especially BRICS. Largest gold buyers in the past three years. They're aiming to move off the dollar entirely, and in many transactions, have.