Replying to Avatar mike

Here's a thought about the potential value of Bitcoin evolved from my musings here:

https://habla.news/u/mhardcastle@nostrplebs.com/1732297906156

If world wealth is currently around $454T

And world debt is currently around $315T

then can we consider it like a company and consider the profit to be $454T - $315T = $139T

Would that be a good expectation for final Bitcoin price?

i.e. $139T / 21M = $6.6M per BTC

No.

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TBF, I can’t argue with your logic 😂

The problem for me is that any valuation higher than this requires Bitcoin to back debt, of which $MSTR is testing that scenario with the US potentially about to up the ante with its strategic Bitcoin reserve.

I don't know the outcome for this and I don't know if Bitcoin can survive something that gold was never required to do.

It might, it might not.

It's a gamble.

If Bitcoin is "digital gold", the target benchmark is Gold Market Cap

If Bitcoin is "just" money the target benchmark is real/ppp global M1 or global M2

If Bitcoin is the ultimate form of capital your estimate is the righ one

If you back debt with bitcoin, you demonetaze it

🫂

Good analysis 💜

Thanks. 😅

I'm working on a couple of btc adoption models... and mining profitability models..

You’re going deep my friend.

Good luck 🤞