Here's a thought about the potential value of Bitcoin evolved from my musings here:
https://habla.news/u/mhardcastle@nostrplebs.com/1732297906156
If world wealth is currently around $454T
And world debt is currently around $315T
then can we consider it like a company and consider the profit to be $454T - $315T = $139T
Would that be a good expectation for final Bitcoin price?
i.e. $139T / 21M = $6.6M per BTC
No.
TBF, I can’t argue with your logic 😂
The problem for me is that any valuation higher than this requires Bitcoin to back debt, of which $MSTR is testing that scenario with the US potentially about to up the ante with its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
I don't know the outcome for this and I don't know if Bitcoin can survive something that gold was never required to do.
It might, it might not.
It's a gamble.
If Bitcoin is "digital gold", the target benchmark is Gold Market Cap
If Bitcoin is "just" money the target benchmark is real/ppp global M1 or global M2
If Bitcoin is the ultimate form of capital your estimate is the righ one
If you back debt with bitcoin, you demonetaze it
🫂
Interesting idea
... in 2024 dollars, of course. Much more by the time we get there (unless doing so obsoletes the dollar altogether).
💯
The more I think about it, the more I believe the final BTC price (not adjusted for inflation, growth in wealth, population etc) is around $5M.
Of course adjusted, the final figure could be anything and if we create more and more debt and load that onto Bitcoin, that could set the price much higher, but that would not increase its value, just the figure.
nostr:note14mexk35hyjkznv9mdr89srehcjpgmrk2eepp40lwud6pph4ncxnq3djr05
