how do you see this playing out ? There is not going to be a peace deal because Russia wants to control the port. Nato is being a jerk. Supplying arms has been standard US modus operandi post WW2. And for some reason this becomes a partisan fight within the US. Ukraine is fired up to fight. IMF who were giving painful loan terms are now hyped up throwing in the cash. Ukraine has always been to Russia what Sicily is to Italy.

This is a good piece : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-afghanistan-we-lost-control-of-our-own-war/

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I don't have a crystal ball, so all I can do is guess. Some things are easy to predict - the sun will rise tomorrow. What happens with Ukraine is a lot more difficult. But I'll make some guesses. I think Ukraine will start using long-range missiles into Russian territory, intially to attack military assets headed for Ukraine, but then also to continue terrorizing Russians in the hope that Russians will put pressure on Moscow to stop the "special military operation." I think there will be some fighter jet activity that will amount to almost nothing as there aren't enough jets and approximately zero trained fighter pilots. Eventually Ukraine will surrender because it can't possibly win, and the West is not willing to start World War III. The longer things drag out now, the worse it is for Ukraine. But they are running hot, they are mad, they are very very mad, and that makes people do things against their own best interest.

I think Putin is a monster for letting it escalate this far. It wasn't his initial idea AFAICT.

I think nuclear war is almost definitely not going to happen. Nobody wants that. Nobody will start that. I think even a hot war between NATO and Russia is very unlikely. So given that, it is hard to see Ukraine winning against a power so much greater. Russian industry is producing shells and morters and rockets and missiles and drones far faster than the entire Western world is, and we cannot catch up. Strategically we (Ukraine) cannot win.

But how do you tell that to an angry Ukrainian who just lost half of his family?

It is a thing that is difficult to watch happen.