At high level, how would the number of coins available for trading / commerce be calculated? Seems like that would be impossible to know. Maybe I’m missing something.

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IMO you cant really know. You can only take educated guesses. I know it's not easy to differentiate between cold storage or a wallet that somebody has lost access to for instance.

Exactly, circulating supply is an estimation or you take the supply available on exchanges & use that.

I err on the side of what's available on exchanges because it's measurable & obv affects price.