very confused about how we're going to fill the etfs and also blocks
wont the btc get locked up in cold storage? what bitcoin is gonna be available to transact onchain??
Discussion
Exactly. That’s what it’s going to go to the moon. I need to stack More!!!
Regardless of blocks, how will they fill the etfs? Who would be selling 🤷♂️
Miners will be selling. Perhaps not enough to fill the needs of the ETFs, but that’s certainly one group who will be selling — to fund their OpEx.
this is one of the brilliant, under appreciated things about the PoW: finite number of a depreciating asset has strong potential for locking up and imploding, but bitcoin was built in such a way that there’s always a network participant that needs to sell coins to fund real world expenses (miners)
it’s possible that you’d reach a situation where the *only* people selling are miners, but that’s infinitely better than no one
Someone, somewhere will need to transact on the main chain. Especially if this thing turns out to be the reliable, base settlement layer for global finance that so many companies are building towards.
I guess my argument is that there's gonna be nowhere near enough Bitcoin liquidity to go around for the ETFs to meet the demand. (At this price)
With $50k btc price, the miners revenue is ~100k coin per quarter now ~ $5Billion.
I think that some expected inflow estimates are in lower hundred $Bs in 2024.
To meet that, there would have to be many more sellers found and the price would have to adjust a lot.
- even then, I'm thinking that they will have really hard time to capture a super-dominant share of the coin.
I agree with you and I believe nostr:npub1e0z776cpe0gllgktjk54fuzv8pdfxmq6smsmh8xd7t8s7n474n9smk0txy does, too. As well as many of us here.
To give some additional color to the miners who are selling, check this chart. Note that several miners have no HODL strategy and are simply selling everything they mine to fund/grow their operations. 
lol, good one!
Me, finally opening a few more lightning channels. I’ll fill the block.
It seems that btc price to usd will explode if the etfs are successful ( ill wait to see if they are ) and transactions will be done in the blocks with whatever utxos remain outside of the wallstreet blackhole. Maybe will require adding some zeroes after 8th decimal ?
That is not possible.
Well there is 6.25 new btc every 10min. Also Coinbase exchange probably already has some in cold storage to allocate to the ETFs.
*3.125
yours and mine. P2P Bitcoin. Spend don't sell.
That’s an important point. Bitcoin is only valuable so long as it’s moving. Tx fees will need to replace block rewards; this won’t happen if all BTC is locked up in cold storage. We need to focus more effort on developing payment technologies, not storage solutions.
They're gonna get a huge chunk, like .8% of the total supply.
is this more or less than MSTR holds??
That would be less. Microstrategy is holding 189,150 BTC right now, ~0.9%
Yeah I'm joking a bit, MS was very early, a trillion dollars doesn't buy as many sats as it used to though.
But according to Austrian economic theory you can run any size society on any amount of tokens provided they are divisible. I think we keep enough sats away from the big boys to still run the world economy.
This is the point Arthur Hayes makes here:
Just the BTC that gets mined and the stuff people sell to them...ngu
This is the Samson Mow theory, BTC to $1million in weeks.
Personally, I have little doubt the ETF exchanges have been hoarding BTC for months ahead of an approval. Which is why they’ve been so patient, not revolting.
But they don’t have enough, imo. Not by a long-shot.
I suspect things will be orderly at first, but within a month of ETF approval(s) they’ll have to begin bidding the Maxis out of their Bitcoin.
We all have our price, we’ll all discover what it is this year.
Exactly. ETF is antithetical to Bitcoin. I suppose the mid to long term game theory says we'll have a chain split of sovereign Bitcoin vs ETF coin. The ETF coin will likely move to PoS. I guess it may be the "last boss" in that the sovereign coin will likely lose purchasing power in the short to mid term given the economic firepower that will be deployed against it. This might be something that takes decades to fully play out. But ultimately I can't see there being a future for ETF coin. The entire (and only?) point of Bitcoin is to escape those fiat paper games.