Replying to Avatar Ben Justman🍷

A 20% tariff on wine sounds simple.

But in the U.S., wine moves through a system designed to multiply cost:

Producer → Importer → Distributor → Retailer → You

Each layer adds its margin.

So when the base price goes up, the whole chain compounds it.

Here’s how imported wine moves through the system:

→ Producer sells the wine for $10

→ Importer adds 35% → $13.50

→ Distributor adds 30% → $17.55

→ Retailer adds 40% → $24.57

That’s how a $10 bottle becomes $25—before any tariff.

That’s just the system.

Now let’s add a 20% tariff to that $10 bottle:

→ Producer + tariff = $12

→ Importer markup → $16.20

→ Distributor markup → $21.06

→ Retailer markup → $29.48

The price didn’t rise by just $2.

It rose almost $5—because each step adds margin to a higher base.

That’s the multiplier effect.

This system what put in place after Prohibition.

The government banned direct sales to control alcohol.

They split the chain into tiers to make it easier to tax and track.

It’s not efficient. But it is law.

And that’s just the sales chain.

Even American wine relies on foreign parts.

Most bottles come from China.

Most corks come from Portugal.

Many barrels come from France.

So tariffs raise production costs here too.

A $10 bottle doesn’t become $30 because of a tariff.

It becomes $30 because of the system.

Tariffs just amplify the effect.

If this helped explain wine pricing in America,

please like or repost to help spread the word.

Tomorrow: how we ended up relying on foreign glass.

Yeah, that's kind of the point. It's called "Shoring production." It incentivizes companies to source their materials in America. Thus either keeping the marginal cost similar or less than imported wines. It's not like people don't know what tariffs do, it's the fact that any politician would do it because of this very effect.

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Can't reshore a wine industry completely.

Gonna be posting details on that tomorrow

Well, I would say that it is costly and difficult but can be done. America can make glass, cork, and grapes. America also has a long history of booze production so, I wouldn't say it CAN'T be done, just way more difficult.

Google search how much cork is made in America and why

I have researched this before. Again, it's difficult and expensive, not impossible. The United states started planting cork oak after WW2 because the main suppliers (Africa and Europe) had some...issues. There's no reason it can't be expanded now. Also, not that I could predict but, we ARE in the future, is Cork the ONLY way to seal and reseal a bottle?

You're right that cork isn't the only way, but artificial cork and stelvin tops aren't solutions, just different tradeoffs. Youd never way to put a nice red that you're aging in either of those.

Interesting to know more of the history! Thanks for sharing. Would need like 25 years to kickstart the industry, it seems, but glad to know it's doable.

Do you know where in the US?

I think it was Napa out of convenience but I believe a lot of the western US has the climate for it. (Agreed on the other bottling solutions being inadequate for certain wine) I was more saying we are in the future, why don't we have Jetson wine technology by now? 😤

Because fiat stopped (massively slowed) human technological advancement

Not surprised on location.

Come on future! Be the future already!

Buying direct from producer solves so many of life's problems. I loath the middlemen that leech off the productivity of others. Localism fixes this.